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Out Of The Ashes
Celente: Economic Meltdown Could Result In Rural Renaissance
By Lisa Hare
lisa.hare@yankton.net
The current financial crisis in the U.S. may have caught some people by surprise. But trends forecaster Gerald Celente saw it coming.
In the December 2007 issue of the Trends Journal newsletter, Celente predicted what he called an “Economic 9/11” would strike the nation.
“Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the U.S. economy,” Celente said. “When the high-stake speculators, banks, brokerages and buyout firms that leveraged billions with millions get hit, everything underneath them will turn to rubble.”
Now, Celente says that’s just what’s happening.
A trends analyst covering 300 diversified fields, Celente and the Trends Research Institute that he founded in 1980 provide trend research studies and consulting services to businesses and governments worldwide.
But Celente will be the first to tell you he doesn’t predict the future. He merely observes and analyzes the current events forming future trends.
One such event is the Wall Street meltdown, and in a recent interview with the Press & Dakotan, Celente said he believes the current financial quagmire will result in a renaissance of local communities within the urban areas, and a revival of small rural towns.
“The current ag model is based on producing large quantities and shipping them long distances,” he said. “But rising energy costs are going to challenge that. When it’s no longer a viable money-maker, a new system will have to be applied.”
Celente admits there are many “interlocking trends” that will affect how the U.S. meets the financial challenges that lie ahead.
“If we come up with a new alternative fuel that is cost-effective, we’ll see the current ag model continue,” he said, adding that a strained economy will pose huge challenges to any type of new growth.
Celente has earned is reputation as a trusted name in trends by accurately forecasting hundreds of social, business, consumer, environmental, economic, political and technology trends. Years before Starbucks was a household name, Celente forecast the popularity of gourmet coffee and decades before Pepsi and Coke got into the water business, he predicted the “Big Boom in Bottled Water.” Celente and The Trends Research Institute are credited with forecasting the collapse of the Soviet Union, the last two recessions, the dot-com meltdown, the 1997 Asian currency crisis, the 1987 world stock market crash, increased terrorism against America and the plight in Iraq — before the war began.
A second-degree black belt Close-Combat martial artist, Celente applies much of that philosophy to his approach toward business.
“Action is faster than reaction. The same holds true for the future,” he said.
And the future, according to Celente, could get ugly.
A man whose motto is “think for yourself,” Celente believes in staying ahead of the curve and turning challenges into opportunities.
“We’re moving into a depression, and it’ll be worse than before,” he said, crediting several factors to this forecast.
“We have $14 trillion worth of debt. Industry should expand on profitability, not borrowed money; that’s just bad business,” he said.
Celente added that the nation doesn’t have the manufacturing it did in the 1930s. Also, many more people don’t have the means to be as self-sufficient as they were when agriculture was more diversified and a predominant sector of the population lived on farms.
And though this might paint a frightening picture for city-dwellers, those living in rural America may be affected to a lesser extent — or even fare well.
“There are just too many variables to be able to predict what this is going to look like,” Celente said, adding that downsizing will have to happen in every industry.
“The ‘too big to fail’ and ‘too small to save’ mentality is breaking down,” he said, adding that, in the long run, this is a good thing. “Smaller is better, all the way around.”
Celente said the current system will have to completely collapse. “The good news is, a new system could be born out of this mess — one that is better, more productive,” he said.
Recent food scares and growing concerns for knowledge of source are accelerating the “Buy Local” trend.
In a recent study conducted by the American Farmland Trust (AFT) in cooperation with Sustainable Agriculture Education (SAGE) and the University of California, Berkeley, it was found that food-miles for items typically purchased in the grocery store tend to be 27 times higher than the food-miles for goods bought from local sources.
In the U.S., the average grocery store’s produce travels nearly 1,500 miles between the farm where it was grown and the consumer’s refrigerator. About 40 percent of our fruit is produced overseas and, even though broccoli is likely grown within 20 miles of the average American’s house, the broccoli we buy at the supermarket travels an average of 1,800 miles to get there.
Nearly 10 percent of our red meat comes from foreign countries, including locations as far away as Australia and New Zealand.
This is all going to change, according to Celente.
“Farmer’s Markets are more prolific than ever,” he said, adding that the buy-local trend will grow and expand to other services and products, as well, boosting local economies and bringing main streets back to life.
“Where there’s economic strife, there will always be innovation and opportunity,” Celente said. “In times of abundance, we just consume, but in times of economic difficulty, there is a shift in consciousness — people become more aware of waste and find new ways of doing things.”
But Celente added that nothing happens “in a straight line.”
“There are always ups and downs along the way,” he said. “And there are many wild cards that will come into play.”
As vague as that may sound, Celente seemed very clear on one point: Big change is coming.
In the December 2007 issue of the Trends Journal newsletter, Celente predicted what he called an “Economic 9/11” would strike the nation.
“Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the U.S. economy,” Celente said. “When the high-stake speculators, banks, brokerages and buyout firms that leveraged billions with millions get hit, everything underneath them will turn to rubble.”
Now, Celente says that’s just what’s happening.
A trends analyst covering 300 diversified fields, Celente and the Trends Research Institute that he founded in 1980 provide trend research studies and consulting services to businesses and governments worldwide.
But Celente will be the first to tell you he doesn’t predict the future. He merely observes and analyzes the current events forming future trends.
One such event is the Wall Street meltdown, and in a recent interview with the Press & Dakotan, Celente said he believes the current financial quagmire will result in a renaissance of local communities within the urban areas, and a revival of small rural towns.
“The current ag model is based on producing large quantities and shipping them long distances,” he said. “But rising energy costs are going to challenge that. When it’s no longer a viable money-maker, a new system will have to be applied.”
Celente admits there are many “interlocking trends” that will affect how the U.S. meets the financial challenges that lie ahead.
“If we come up with a new alternative fuel that is cost-effective, we’ll see the current ag model continue,” he said, adding that a strained economy will pose huge challenges to any type of new growth.
Celente has earned is reputation as a trusted name in trends by accurately forecasting hundreds of social, business, consumer, environmental, economic, political and technology trends. Years before Starbucks was a household name, Celente forecast the popularity of gourmet coffee and decades before Pepsi and Coke got into the water business, he predicted the “Big Boom in Bottled Water.” Celente and The Trends Research Institute are credited with forecasting the collapse of the Soviet Union, the last two recessions, the dot-com meltdown, the 1997 Asian currency crisis, the 1987 world stock market crash, increased terrorism against America and the plight in Iraq — before the war began.
A second-degree black belt Close-Combat martial artist, Celente applies much of that philosophy to his approach toward business.
“Action is faster than reaction. The same holds true for the future,” he said.
And the future, according to Celente, could get ugly.
A man whose motto is “think for yourself,” Celente believes in staying ahead of the curve and turning challenges into opportunities.
“We’re moving into a depression, and it’ll be worse than before,” he said, crediting several factors to this forecast.
“We have $14 trillion worth of debt. Industry should expand on profitability, not borrowed money; that’s just bad business,” he said.
Celente added that the nation doesn’t have the manufacturing it did in the 1930s. Also, many more people don’t have the means to be as self-sufficient as they were when agriculture was more diversified and a predominant sector of the population lived on farms.
And though this might paint a frightening picture for city-dwellers, those living in rural America may be affected to a lesser extent — or even fare well.
“There are just too many variables to be able to predict what this is going to look like,” Celente said, adding that downsizing will have to happen in every industry.
“The ‘too big to fail’ and ‘too small to save’ mentality is breaking down,” he said, adding that, in the long run, this is a good thing. “Smaller is better, all the way around.”
Celente said the current system will have to completely collapse. “The good news is, a new system could be born out of this mess — one that is better, more productive,” he said.
Recent food scares and growing concerns for knowledge of source are accelerating the “Buy Local” trend.
In a recent study conducted by the American Farmland Trust (AFT) in cooperation with Sustainable Agriculture Education (SAGE) and the University of California, Berkeley, it was found that food-miles for items typically purchased in the grocery store tend to be 27 times higher than the food-miles for goods bought from local sources.
In the U.S., the average grocery store’s produce travels nearly 1,500 miles between the farm where it was grown and the consumer’s refrigerator. About 40 percent of our fruit is produced overseas and, even though broccoli is likely grown within 20 miles of the average American’s house, the broccoli we buy at the supermarket travels an average of 1,800 miles to get there.
Nearly 10 percent of our red meat comes from foreign countries, including locations as far away as Australia and New Zealand.
This is all going to change, according to Celente.
“Farmer’s Markets are more prolific than ever,” he said, adding that the buy-local trend will grow and expand to other services and products, as well, boosting local economies and bringing main streets back to life.
“Where there’s economic strife, there will always be innovation and opportunity,” Celente said. “In times of abundance, we just consume, but in times of economic difficulty, there is a shift in consciousness — people become more aware of waste and find new ways of doing things.”
But Celente added that nothing happens “in a straight line.”
“There are always ups and downs along the way,” he said. “And there are many wild cards that will come into play.”
As vague as that may sound, Celente seemed very clear on one point: Big change is coming.
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